Empirical evidence of S-curves in the Colombian

Main Article Content

Jose Julián Cao-Alvira https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3226-7389
Lorena Andrea Palacios-Chacón

Keywords

Curva S, balanza comercial, tasa de cambio real, Colombia.

Abstract

The Marshall-Lerner condition, the J-curve and S-curve have emerged as theoretical  and empirical foundations developed for the study of the interaction between exchange rates and international patterns of bilateral trade. They have a significant bearing on thedevelopment of public policy, and are of equal interest to the academic and professional communities. The most recently developed of these theories, the S-Curve, is named after the theorized short-run behavior to be found in the cross-correlation function of the real exchange rate and the trade balance. Considering this theoretical context, the paper seeks empirical evidence of the existence of the S-Curve in the bilateral trade in commodity and non-commodity goods between Colombia and the United States and Venezuela, its main trading partners, for the yearly quarters between 1994:1 and 2009:4.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.
Abstract 919 | PDF (Español) Downloads 416

References

Backus, D.K.; Kehoe, P.J. & Kydland, F.E. (1994). Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J curve? American Economic Review, 84, (1), 84-103.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1985). Devaluation and the J-curve: Some evidence from LDCs. The Review of Economics and Statistics, (67), 500-504.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M.; Gelan, A. & Ratha, A. (2008b). S-curve dynamics of trade in Afri- ca. African Development Review, 20, (2), 335-342.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Hegerty S.W. (2010b). The J- and S-curves: a survey of the re- cent literature. Journal of Economic Studies, 37, (6), 580.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Kara, O. (2005). Income and price elasticities of trade: Some new estimates. The International Trade Journal, (19), 165-178.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M.; Kutan, A. & Ratha, A. (2008c). The S-curve in emerging markets. Comparative Economic Studies, 50, (2), 341-351.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Niroomand, F. (1998). Long-run price elasticities and the Mars- hall-Lerner condition revisited. Economics Letters, (61), 101-109.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Ratha, A. (2007a). The S-curve dynamics of US bilateral trade. Review of International Economics, (15), 430-439.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Ratha, A. (2007b). Bilateral S-curve between Japan and her trading partners. Japan and the World Economy, 19, (4), 483-489.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Ratha, A. (2008a). S-curve at industry level: evidence from US-UK bilateral trade. Empiri- cal Economics, 35, (1), 141-152.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Ratha, A. (2009a). S-curve dynamics of trade: evidence from US-Canada commodity tra- de. Economic Issues, forthcoming, s. d.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Ratha, A. (2009b). S-curve dynamics of trade between US and China. China Economic Review, 21, (2), 212-223.

Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Ratha, A. (2010a), S-curve at the commodity level: evidence from US-India trade. Interna- tional Trade Journal, 24, (1), 84-95.

Cao-Alvira, J. & Ronderos-Torres, C. (2011). Commodity and Non-Commodity Trade Dy- namics in Colombia. Journal of Globalization, Competitiveness and Governability, 5, (2), 86-105.

Esguerra, M.; Montes, E.; Garavito, A. & Pulido, C. (2010). El comercio colombo-venezola- no: características y evolución reciente. Borradores de Economía, (602).

Gylfason, T. & Radetzki, M. (1991) Does Devaluation Make Sense in the Least Develop- ment Countries? Economic Development and Cultural Change, s. d.

Hodrick, R.J. & Prescott, E.C. (1997). Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Inves- tigation. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29, (1), 1-16.

Houthakker, H.S. & Magee, S. (1969, mayo). Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 51, (2), 111-125.

Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration - with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Eco- nomics and Statistics, 52, (2), 169-210.

Junz, H.B. & Rhomberg, R.R. (1973). Price competitiveness in export trade among indus- trial countries. American Economic Review, (63), 412-418.

Krugman, P.R. (1991). Has the Adjustment Process Worked? Policy Analyses in Interna- tional Economics, (34), IIE.

Magee, S.P. (1973). Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation. Brookings Pa- pers on Economic Activity, 4, (1), 303-325.

Meade, E.E. (1988). Exchange rates, adjustment, and the J-curve. Federal Reserve Bu- lletin, 74, (10), 633-644.

Newey, W.K. & West, K.D. (1987). A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix. Econometrica, 55, (3), 703-708.

Parikh, A. & Shibata, M. (2004). Dynamics of the relationship between the terms of trade and the trade balance in developing countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 2, 104-121.

Pesaran, M.H.; Shin, Y. & Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, (3), 289-326.

Ratha, A. (2002). Dynamics of United States bilateral trade. Disertación Ph.D., Univer- sity of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, EE.UU. Recuperado en agosto 19 de 2011, de ABI/ INFORM Global.

Rincón, H. (1998). Exchange rates and trade balance: Testing the short- and long-run relationship using data for small semi-open economies. Disertación Ph.D., Univer- sity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, EE.UU. Recuperado en agosto 19 de 2011, de Dissertations y Theses: Full Text.

Rose, A.K. (1990). Exchange rates and the trade balance: Some evidence from develo- ping countries. Economics Letters, (34), 271-275.

Rose, A.K. & Yellen, J.L. (1989). Is there a J-curve? Journal of Monetary Economics, (24), 53-68.

Senhadji, A.S. (1998). Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade in LDCs: the S-curve. Journal of International Economics, 46, (1), 105-131.

Sims, C.A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48, (1), 1-4.