Banking sector and economic situation the Colombian case 1990 - 2000

Abstract

Working on the same research line “La política coyuntural de la empresa”, an analysis of the Colombian banking system is made. The project starts from the assumption that there are certain elements of the banking system that differentiate it from the rest of the sectors of the economy: its dynamics are determined by the behavior of other economic agents (firms, government, external sector, families), the monetary policy, other financial institutions competition and information asymmetries. This means that the banking activity is very exposed to fluctuations in the economic system, given that unanticipated shocks in the behavior of the agents affect immediately the output of the banking system.

Besides studying the theory of “La política coyuntural de la empresa”, a description of the evolution of the Colombian banking system in the decade of the nineties is presented, along with three empirical exercises: an application of the CAMEL model for the banking system, an analysis of the “sensibilidad coyuntural” using Logit and Panel Data models. The results show that, indeed, there is a high influence of the macroeconomic and policy variables on the accounting balance of banks.