Empirical evidence of S-curves in the Colombian
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17230/ecos.2012.34.5Keywords:
Curva S, balanza comercial, tasa de cambio real, Colombia.Abstract
The Marshall-Lerner condition, the J-curve and S-curve have emerged as theoretical and empirical foundations developed for the study of the interaction between exchange rates and international patterns of bilateral trade. They have a significant bearing on thedevelopment of public policy, and are of equal interest to the academic and professional communities. The most recently developed of these theories, the S-Curve, is named after the theorized short-run behavior to be found in the cross-correlation function of the real exchange rate and the trade balance. Considering this theoretical context, the paper seeks empirical evidence of the existence of the S-Curve in the bilateral trade in commodity and non-commodity goods between Colombia and the United States and Venezuela, its main trading partners, for the yearly quarters between 1994:1 and 2009:4.
Downloads
References
Backus, D.K.; Kehoe, P.J. & Kydland, F.E. (1994). Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the J curve? American Economic Review, 84, (1), 84-103.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1985). Devaluation and the J-curve: Some evidence from LDCs. The Review of Economics and Statistics, (67), 500-504.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M.; Gelan, A. & Ratha, A. (2008b). S-curve dynamics of trade in Afri- ca. African Development Review, 20, (2), 335-342.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Hegerty S.W. (2010b). The J- and S-curves: a survey of the re- cent literature. Journal of Economic Studies, 37, (6), 580.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Kara, O. (2005). Income and price elasticities of trade: Some new estimates. The International Trade Journal, (19), 165-178.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M.; Kutan, A. & Ratha, A. (2008c). The S-curve in emerging markets. Comparative Economic Studies, 50, (2), 341-351.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Niroomand, F. (1998). Long-run price elasticities and the Mars- hall-Lerner condition revisited. Economics Letters, (61), 101-109.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Ratha, A. (2007a). The S-curve dynamics of US bilateral trade. Review of International Economics, (15), 430-439.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Ratha, A. (2007b). Bilateral S-curve between Japan and her trading partners. Japan and the World Economy, 19, (4), 483-489.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Ratha, A. (2008a). S-curve at industry level: evidence from US-UK bilateral trade. Empiri- cal Economics, 35, (1), 141-152.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Ratha, A. (2009a). S-curve dynamics of trade: evidence from US-Canada commodity tra- de. Economic Issues, forthcoming, s. d.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Ratha, A. (2009b). S-curve dynamics of trade between US and China. China Economic Review, 21, (2), 212-223.
Bahmani-Oskooee, M. & Ratha, A. (2010a), S-curve at the commodity level: evidence from US-India trade. Interna- tional Trade Journal, 24, (1), 84-95.
Cao-Alvira, J. & Ronderos-Torres, C. (2011). Commodity and Non-Commodity Trade Dy- namics in Colombia. Journal of Globalization, Competitiveness and Governability, 5, (2), 86-105.
Esguerra, M.; Montes, E.; Garavito, A. & Pulido, C. (2010). El comercio colombo-venezola- no: características y evolución reciente. Borradores de Economía, (602).
Gylfason, T. & Radetzki, M. (1991) Does Devaluation Make Sense in the Least Develop- ment Countries? Economic Development and Cultural Change, s. d.
Hodrick, R.J. & Prescott, E.C. (1997). Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Inves- tigation. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29, (1), 1-16.
Houthakker, H.S. & Magee, S. (1969, mayo). Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 51, (2), 111-125.
Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration - with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Eco- nomics and Statistics, 52, (2), 169-210.
Junz, H.B. & Rhomberg, R.R. (1973). Price competitiveness in export trade among indus- trial countries. American Economic Review, (63), 412-418.
Krugman, P.R. (1991). Has the Adjustment Process Worked? Policy Analyses in Interna- tional Economics, (34), IIE.
Magee, S.P. (1973). Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation. Brookings Pa- pers on Economic Activity, 4, (1), 303-325.
Meade, E.E. (1988). Exchange rates, adjustment, and the J-curve. Federal Reserve Bu- lletin, 74, (10), 633-644.
Newey, W.K. & West, K.D. (1987). A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix. Econometrica, 55, (3), 703-708.
Parikh, A. & Shibata, M. (2004). Dynamics of the relationship between the terms of trade and the trade balance in developing countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 2, 104-121.
Pesaran, M.H.; Shin, Y. & Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, (3), 289-326.
Ratha, A. (2002). Dynamics of United States bilateral trade. Disertación Ph.D., Univer- sity of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, EE.UU. Recuperado en agosto 19 de 2011, de ABI/ INFORM Global.
Rincón, H. (1998). Exchange rates and trade balance: Testing the short- and long-run relationship using data for small semi-open economies. Disertación Ph.D., Univer- sity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, EE.UU. Recuperado en agosto 19 de 2011, de Dissertations y Theses: Full Text.
Rose, A.K. (1990). Exchange rates and the trade balance: Some evidence from develo- ping countries. Economics Letters, (34), 271-275.
Rose, A.K. & Yellen, J.L. (1989). Is there a J-curve? Journal of Monetary Economics, (24), 53-68.
Senhadji, A.S. (1998). Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade in LDCs: the S-curve. Journal of International Economics, 46, (1), 105-131.
Sims, C.A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica, 48, (1), 1-4.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
