Spatial Dependence of Crime in Monterrey, Mexico
Main Article Content
Keywords
Crime, Spatial Autocorrelation, The Neighborhood Effects
Abstract
This paper studies the impact that the characteristics of the environment have on crime using neighborhood aggregate data of the Monterrey Metropolitan Area for the year 2010. Data spatial autocorrelation is corroborated, i.e. neighborhoods with high crime rates have a positive impact on the crime rates of its surrounding neighborhoods. Once it was controlled through the bias caused by spatial autocorrelation and data censoring, it is evidenced that the likelihood of being a crime victim and the probability of becoming an offender is positively related to variables such as unemployment, the percentage of young men and the existence of schools, hospitals or markets in the neighborhood.
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References
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Anselin, L. (1988). Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Dordrecht, the Netherlands Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Anselin, L. (1996). The Moran Scatterplot as an ESDA Tool to Asses Local Inestability in Spatial Association. Spatial Analytical Perspective on GIS in Enviromental and Socio-Economic Sciences. London, UK, Taylor & Francis.
Anselin, L. (1999). Spatial Econometrics. Dallas, Texas, Estados Unidos, Bruton Center
School of Social Sciences, University of Texas. Disponible en http://www.csiss.org/
learning_resources/content/papers/baltchap.pdf
Anselin, L. (2002). Spatial Externalities, Spatial Multipliers and Spatial Econometrics. International Regional Science Review, 26, 2.
Anselin, L. (2002). Under the Hood Issues in the Specification and Interpretation of Spatial Regression Models. Agricultural Economics, 27, 2.
Anselin, L. (2003). GeoDaTM 0.9 User´s Guide. Spatial Analysis Laboratory, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science http://www.csiss.org/
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Anselin, L. y Amaral, P. V. (2011). Finite Sample Properties of Moran´s I Test for Spatial Autocorrelation in Probit and Tobit Models- Empirical Evidence. GeoDa Center for Geospatial Analysis and Computation. Arizona State University. Working Paper, 7.
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Becker, G. S. (1995). Economics of Crime. Chicago, EE. UU.: The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
Benita, F. (2012). El rezago social en el Área Metropolitana de Monterrey: 2010. Tesis de maestría. Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León. Monterrey, Nuevo León.
Case, A. y Katz, L. (1991). The Company You Keep: the Effects of Family and Neighborhood on Disadvantaged Youths. NBER Working Paper, No. 3705.
Cliff, A. y Ord, J. (1973). Spatial Autocorrelation. londres, Reino Unido: Pion.
Commanor, W. S. y Phillips, L. (2002) The Impact of Income and Family Structure on Delinquency. Journal of Applied Economics, 5, 2.
Cook, P. (1986). The Demand and Supply of Criminal Opportunities. Crime and Justice, 7.
Chasco, C. (2003). Econometría espacial aplicada a la predicción-extrapolación de datos microterritoriales. Tesis de doctorado. Elffers, H. (2003). Analysing Neighbourhood Influence in Criminology. Statistica Neerlandica, 57, 3.
Erlich, I. (1973). Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation. The Journal of Political Economy, 81, 3, 521-65.
Erlich, I. (1981). On the Uselfuness of Controlling Individuals: An Economic Analysis of Rehabilitation, Incapacitation and Deterrence. American Economic Review, 71, 307-22.
Encuesta nacional de victimización y percepción de la inseguridad pública (Envipe). (2011). México: Inegi.
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Glaeser, E.; Sacerdote, B. y Sheinkman, J. (1996). Crimen and Social Interactions. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111, 2, 507-548
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Kakamu, K.; Polasek, W. y Wago, H. (2008). Spatial Interaction of Crime Incidents in Japan. Matemathics and Computers in Simulation, 78, 276-82.
Kalb, G. y Williams, J. (2003). Delinquency and Gender. Applied Economics Letters, 10.
Kelly, M. (2000). Inequality and Crime. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 82, 4.
Lagrange, T. C. (1999). The Impact of Neighborhoods, Schools and Malls on the Spatial Distribution of Porperty Damage. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 36, 4, 393-422.
LeSage, J. P. y Pace, K. (2009). Introduction to Spatial Econometrics. United Kingdom. Chapman and Hall/CRC
Levitt, S. y Lochner, L. (2001). The Determinants of Crime Juvenile. En Jonathan Gruber (ed.) Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis. National Bureau of Economic Research. University of Chicago Press.
Londoño, J. y Guerrero, R. (1999). Violencia en América Latina, epidemiología y costos. Documento de Trabajo R-375. Washington, D.C. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID).
Loureiro, P.; Cardoso, M.; Silva, T. y Sachsida, A. (2009). Crime, Economic Conditions, Social Interactions and Family Heritage. International Review of Law Economics, 29, 202-09.
Martínez I., Treviño, J. A. y Gómez, M. V. (2009). Mapas de pobreza y rezago social. Área Metropolitana de Monterrey. México: Consejo de Desarrollo Social del Gobierno del estado de Nuevo León.
Messner, S. F.; Anselin, L.; Baller, R. D.; Hawkins, D. F.; Deane, G. y Tolney, S. E. (1999). The Spatial Patterning of County Homicide Rates: An Application of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 15, 4.
Phillips, L.; Votey, H. L. y Maxwell (1972) Crime, Youth, and the Labor Market. Journal of Political Economy, 80, 3, 491-504.
Procuraduría General de Justicia de Nuevo León (PGJNL) (2005-2010).
United Nation Office on Drugs and Crime, UNODC (2011). Homicide Statistics. Recuperado de www.unodc.org
Valero, J. y Calderón, S. (2012). About The Relation of Inequaltiy and Poverty with Crime in Mexico. Journal of International Business and Economics, 12, 1.
Vilalta, C. (2009). Un modelo descriptivo de la geografía del robo en la zona metropolitana del valle de México. Journal of Latin American Geography, 8(1).
Wooldridge, J.M., (2004), Introductory Econometrics: A modern approach, 2ª ed. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, London, England.
Anselin, L. (1988). Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Dordrecht, the Netherlands Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Anselin, L. (1996). The Moran Scatterplot as an ESDA Tool to Asses Local Inestability in Spatial Association. Spatial Analytical Perspective on GIS in Enviromental and Socio-Economic Sciences. London, UK, Taylor & Francis.
Anselin, L. (1999). Spatial Econometrics. Dallas, Texas, Estados Unidos, Bruton Center
School of Social Sciences, University of Texas. Disponible en http://www.csiss.org/
learning_resources/content/papers/baltchap.pdf
Anselin, L. (2002). Spatial Externalities, Spatial Multipliers and Spatial Econometrics. International Regional Science Review, 26, 2.
Anselin, L. (2002). Under the Hood Issues in the Specification and Interpretation of Spatial Regression Models. Agricultural Economics, 27, 2.
Anselin, L. (2003). GeoDaTM 0.9 User´s Guide. Spatial Analysis Laboratory, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Center for Spatially Integrated Social Science http://www.csiss.org/
Anselin, L.; Cohen, J.; Cook, D.; Gorr, W. y Tita, G. (2000). Spatial Analyses of Crime. Measurement and Analysis of Crime and Justice, Criminal Justice, 4, 213-262.
Anselin, L. y Amaral, P. V. (2011). Finite Sample Properties of Moran´s I Test for Spatial Autocorrelation in Probit and Tobit Models- Empirical Evidence. GeoDa Center for Geospatial Analysis and Computation. Arizona State University. Working Paper, 7.
Ayala, E. y Chapa, J. (2012). La inseguridad y la demanda por entretenimiento: evidencia para las áreas metropolitanas de Monterrey, Guadalajara y León. Econoquantum, 9, 1, 135-48.
Becker, G. S. (1968). Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach. The Journal of Political Economy, 76, 2.
Becker, G. S. (1995). Economics of Crime. Chicago, EE. UU.: The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
Benita, F. (2012). El rezago social en el Área Metropolitana de Monterrey: 2010. Tesis de maestría. Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León. Monterrey, Nuevo León.
Case, A. y Katz, L. (1991). The Company You Keep: the Effects of Family and Neighborhood on Disadvantaged Youths. NBER Working Paper, No. 3705.
Cliff, A. y Ord, J. (1973). Spatial Autocorrelation. londres, Reino Unido: Pion.
Commanor, W. S. y Phillips, L. (2002) The Impact of Income and Family Structure on Delinquency. Journal of Applied Economics, 5, 2.
Cook, P. (1986). The Demand and Supply of Criminal Opportunities. Crime and Justice, 7.
Chasco, C. (2003). Econometría espacial aplicada a la predicción-extrapolación de datos microterritoriales. Tesis de doctorado. Elffers, H. (2003). Analysing Neighbourhood Influence in Criminology. Statistica Neerlandica, 57, 3.
Erlich, I. (1973). Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation. The Journal of Political Economy, 81, 3, 521-65.
Erlich, I. (1981). On the Uselfuness of Controlling Individuals: An Economic Analysis of Rehabilitation, Incapacitation and Deterrence. American Economic Review, 71, 307-22.
Encuesta nacional de victimización y percepción de la inseguridad pública (Envipe). (2011). México: Inegi.
Encuesta nacional sobre inseguridad. ENSI (2009). México: Instituto Ciudadano de Estudios sobre Inseguridad Social (Icesi).
Freeman, R.B .(1996). Why do so many young American men commit crimes and what might we do about it? Journal of Economic Prespectives, 10, 1.
Freeman, R.B. (1999). Economics of Crime. Handbook of Labor Economics, 3.
Glaeser, E.; Sacerdote, B. y Sheinkman, J. (1996). Crimen and Social Interactions. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111, 2, 507-548
Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric Analysis, 5.a edición. N. J., EE. UU.: Prentice-Hall.
Huang J. (2007). Labor force participation and juvenile delinquency in Taiwan: a time series analysis. Journal Fam. Issues, 28.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, Inegi (2011). Censo de Población y Vivienda 2010.
Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, Inegi (2011). Sistema de Consulta de Información Censal (Scince).
Kakamu, K.; Polasek, W. y Wago, H. (2008). Spatial Interaction of Crime Incidents in Japan. Matemathics and Computers in Simulation, 78, 276-82.
Kalb, G. y Williams, J. (2003). Delinquency and Gender. Applied Economics Letters, 10.
Kelly, M. (2000). Inequality and Crime. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 82, 4.
Lagrange, T. C. (1999). The Impact of Neighborhoods, Schools and Malls on the Spatial Distribution of Porperty Damage. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 36, 4, 393-422.
LeSage, J. P. y Pace, K. (2009). Introduction to Spatial Econometrics. United Kingdom. Chapman and Hall/CRC
Levitt, S. y Lochner, L. (2001). The Determinants of Crime Juvenile. En Jonathan Gruber (ed.) Risky Behavior among Youths: An Economic Analysis. National Bureau of Economic Research. University of Chicago Press.
Londoño, J. y Guerrero, R. (1999). Violencia en América Latina, epidemiología y costos. Documento de Trabajo R-375. Washington, D.C. Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID).
Loureiro, P.; Cardoso, M.; Silva, T. y Sachsida, A. (2009). Crime, Economic Conditions, Social Interactions and Family Heritage. International Review of Law Economics, 29, 202-09.
Martínez I., Treviño, J. A. y Gómez, M. V. (2009). Mapas de pobreza y rezago social. Área Metropolitana de Monterrey. México: Consejo de Desarrollo Social del Gobierno del estado de Nuevo León.
Messner, S. F.; Anselin, L.; Baller, R. D.; Hawkins, D. F.; Deane, G. y Tolney, S. E. (1999). The Spatial Patterning of County Homicide Rates: An Application of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 15, 4.
Phillips, L.; Votey, H. L. y Maxwell (1972) Crime, Youth, and the Labor Market. Journal of Political Economy, 80, 3, 491-504.
Procuraduría General de Justicia de Nuevo León (PGJNL) (2005-2010).
United Nation Office on Drugs and Crime, UNODC (2011). Homicide Statistics. Recuperado de www.unodc.org
Valero, J. y Calderón, S. (2012). About The Relation of Inequaltiy and Poverty with Crime in Mexico. Journal of International Business and Economics, 12, 1.
Vilalta, C. (2009). Un modelo descriptivo de la geografía del robo en la zona metropolitana del valle de México. Journal of Latin American Geography, 8(1).
Wooldridge, J.M., (2004), Introductory Econometrics: A modern approach, 2ª ed. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, London, England.
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Published
Jun 30, 2014
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How to Cite
Aguayo Téllez, E., & Medellín Mendoza, S. E. (2014). Spatial Dependence of Crime in Monterrey, Mexico. Ecos De Economía, 18(38), 63–92. https://doi.org/10.17230/ecos.2014.38.3
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