Oracles in Pandemic: Forecasts of Colombian Economic Growth in 2020
Main Article Content
Keywords
forecasting, economic growth, pandemic
Abstract
Forecasting has allowed the economic discipline to gain power and social relevance, although it has also exposed it to public discredit. In the uncertainty that has shaped COVID-19, the determinants of Colombian annual economic growth forecasts for the year 2020 were studied and it was found that the variability of the forecasts, which range from +0,7 to -13,8%, does not depend on the evolution of the epidemiological situation, nor the institutional characteristics of those forecasting. The variability is mainly explained by the average of the most recent previous forecasts and by the central bank intervention rate.
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References
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Schiffman, D. y Goldstein, E. (2019). The economic advisory staff and state-building in Israel. Oeconomia, 9-3, 481-536. https://doi.org/10.4000/oeconomia.6767.
Stanley, T., Doucouliagos, H., Giles, M., Heckemeyer, J., Johnston, R. y Laroche, P. (2013). Meta-analysis of economics research reporting guidelines. Journal of Economic Surveys, 27(2), 390-394. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12008
Taseen, A. A. (2006). Economic forecasting evaluation: Re-Examination of the track record of macroeconomic forecasting. Journal of Economic Issues, 799-807. Disponible en https://econpapers.repec.org/article/mesjeciss/v_3a40_3ay_3a2006_3ai_3a3_3ap_3a799-807.htm.
Banco de la República. (2020). Proyecciones macroeconómicas de analistas locales y extranjeros (desde 06/2004 hasta 04/2020). Disponible en https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/proyeccionesmacroeconomicas-analistas-locales-y-extranjeros
Banco de la República. (s.f.). Mercado accionario. Disponible en https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/estadisticas/mercado-accionario
Berman, E. P. (1965). How government should make decisions. En Thinking like an economist: How economics became the language of U.S. public policy (pp. 1-47). Princeton University Press. Disponible en https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691167381/thinking-like-aneconomist
Brisset, N. (2016). Economics is not always performative: Some limits for performativity. Journal of Economic Methodology, 160-184. https://doi.org/10.1080/1350178X.2016.1172805
Cairncross, A. (1969). Economic forecasting. The Economic Journal, 797-812. https://doi.org/10.2307/2229792
Cherrier, B. (2019). How to write a memo to convince a President: Walter Heller, policy-advising, and the Kennedy tax cut. Oeconomia, 9-2, 315-335. https://doi.org/10.4000/oeconomia.5714
Clements, M. P. y Hendry, D. F. (1995). Macro-economic forecasting and modelling. The Economic Journal, 1001-1013. https://doi.org/10.2307/2235166
DANE –Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística– (2021).Históricos Producto Interno Bruto - Nacional Trimestral. Disponible en https://www.dane.gov.co/index.php/estadisticas-por-tema/cuentas-nacionales/cuentas-nacionales-trimestrales/historicos-producto-interno-bruto-pib
DANE –Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística– (2021). Boletín técnico Mercado laboral - diciembre 2020. Disponible en https://www.dane.gov.co/files/investigaciones/boletines/ech/ech/bol_empleo_dic_20.pdf
Elliott, G. y Timmermann, A. (2008). Economic forecasting. Journal of Economic Literature, 3-56. DOI: 10.1257/jel.46.1.3
Goldfarb, R., Stekler, H. O. y David, J. (2005). Goldf methodological issues in forecasting: Insights from the egregious business forecast errors of late 1930. Journal of Economic Methodology, 517-542. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501780500343524
Hirschman, D. y Berman, E. P. (2014). Do economists make policies? On the political effects of economics. Socio-Economic Review, 779-811. https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwu017
Keynes, J. (1936). Teoría general de la ocupación, el interés y el dinero. México: Fondo de Cultura Económica.
Kirchner, S. (1998). Economic forecasting and the role of the economist. Agenda: A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, 231-234. https://www.jstor.org/stable/i40125364
Lowy Institute (5 de febrero, 2021). Covid Performance Index. https://interactives.lowyinstitute.org/features/covid-performance/
Maas, H., Medema, S. G. y Guidi, M. (2019). Introduction to economics as a public science. Oeconomia, 9-2, 201-207. https://doi.org/10.4000/oeconomia.5784
Martini, C. (2014). The role of experts in the methodology of economics. Journal of Economic Methodology, 77-91. https://doi.org/10.1080/1350178X.2014.886472
Mata, T. y Medema, S. G. (2013). Cultures of expertise and the public interventions of economists. History of Political Economy, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1215/00182702-2310926
Mayes, D. G. (1982). Forecasting and economic policy. National Institute Economic Review, 17-21. Disponible en https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/niesru/v100y1982i1p17-21.html
Naszályi, P. (2017). Gouverner, c’est prévoir ! La Revue des Sciences de Gestion, 1-2. DOI : 10.3917/rsg.283.0001.
Northcott, R. (2019). Prediction versus accommodation in economics. Journal of Economic Methodology, 59-69. https://doi.org/10.1080/1350178X.2018.1561080
Panhans, M. (2018). Health economics: Scientific expertise and policymaking. Oeconomia, 8-3, 279-311. https://doi.org/10.4000/oeconomia.3091.
República de Colombia (28 de mayo, 2020). Por el cual se imparten instrucciones en virtud de la emergencia sanitaria generada por la pandemia del Coronavirus COVID-19, y el mantenimiento del orden público. [Decreto 749 de 2020]. Bogotá.
Schiffman, D. y Goldstein, E. (2019). The economic advisory staff and state-building in Israel. Oeconomia, 9-3, 481-536. https://doi.org/10.4000/oeconomia.6767.
Stanley, T., Doucouliagos, H., Giles, M., Heckemeyer, J., Johnston, R. y Laroche, P. (2013). Meta-analysis of economics research reporting guidelines. Journal of Economic Surveys, 27(2), 390-394. https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12008
Taseen, A. A. (2006). Economic forecasting evaluation: Re-Examination of the track record of macroeconomic forecasting. Journal of Economic Issues, 799-807. Disponible en https://econpapers.repec.org/article/mesjeciss/v_3a40_3ay_3a2006_3ai_3a3_3ap_3a799-807.htm.
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Published
Jan 6, 2023
Article Details
How to Cite
Lozada González, C. A., Perdomo Munévar, J. M., & Torres Pinzón, A. F. . (2023). Oracles in Pandemic: Forecasts of Colombian Economic Growth in 2020. Ecos De Economía, 25(53), 67–87. https://doi.org/10.17230/ecos.2021.53.4
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