Demographic Change, Economic Conditions, and the Murder Rate: The Case of the Colombia, 1990 to 2013
Main Article Content
Keywords
K42, J11, I32
Abstract
Recent changes in the Colombian homicides rate not consider the change in the age distribution, inflation and unemployment that can explain how misery affects homicides in the long run. Therefore, from a relevant time period for Colombia can be analyzed if recent demographic transition given by a higher percentage of young population is a robust predictor of observed changes in the homicide rate along with a corresponding measure of misery given for the sum between unemployment rates and local inflation. This helps explain the long-term relationship between the age distribution in Colombia and rising homicide rates in the 90s along with the decrease in the latter part of the 2000s. It was found that there is a relationship between age and crime, as suggested by the classical literature and there is a long-term relationship between the homicides, misery and youth population density.
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References
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Becker, C. (1968). Punishment: An Economic Approach. Pol. Econ, 169 (10.2307), 1830482169.
Benavente, J. M., & Cortés, E. (2006). Delitos y sus denuncias. La cifra negra de la criminalidad en Chile y sus determinantes. Documento de Trabajo, 228.
Benavente, J. M., & Melo, E. (2006). Determinantes socioeconómicos de la criminalidad en Chile durante los noventa. Documento de trabajo, 223.
Block, M. K., & Heineke, J. M. (1975). A labor Theoretic Analysis of the Criminal Choice. The American Economic Review, 314-25.
Bonilla, L. (2010). Demografía, juventud y homicidios en Colombia, 1979-2006. Lecturas de Economía, (72), 77-102.
Borraz, F., & González, N. (2010). Determinantes económicos y sociodemográficos de la delincuencia en Uruguay. Bienestar y Política Social, 6(2), 47-77.
Buonanno, P., & Montolio, D. (2008). Identifying the Socio-economic and Demographic Determinants of Crime Across Spanish Provinces. International Review of Law and Economics, 28(2), 89-97.
Daza, F. G. (2001). Multicausalidad, impunidad y violencia: una visión alternativa. Revista de Economía Institucional, 3(5).
De Mello, J. M., & Schneider, A. (2007). Age Structure Explaining a Large Shift in Homicides: The Case of the State of Sao Paulo. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Ehrlich, I. (1973). Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation. The Journal of Political Economy, 521-65.
Entorf, H., & Spengler, H. (2000). Socioeconomic and Demographic Factors of Crime in Germany: Evidence from Panel Data of the German States. International Review of Law and Economics, 20(1), 75-106.
Freeman, R. B. (1996). Why do so Many Young American Men Commit Crimes and what Might we do About it? (Informe Técnico). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Gartner, R., Baker, K., & Pampel, F. C. (1990). Gender Stratification and the Gender Gap in Homicide Victimization. Social Problems, 593-612.
Glaeser, E. L., Sacerdote, B., & Scheinkman, J. A. (1996). Crime and Social Interactions. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111(2), 507-48.
Grogger, J. (1995). The Effect of Arrests on the Employment and Earnings of Young Men. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51-71.
Grogger, J. (1997). Market Wages and Youth Crime (Informe Técnico). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Gutiérrez, M., Nüñez, J., & Rivera, J. (2009). Socio-economic and
Geographic Profiling of Crime in Chile. Cepal Review, (98).
Hirschi, T., & Gottfredson, M. (1983). Age and the Explanation of Crime. American Journal of Sociology, 552-84.
Lochner, L., & Moretti, E. (2001). The Effect of Education on Crime: Evidence from Prison Inmates, Arrests, and Self-reports (Informe Técnico). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Machin, S., & Meghir, C. (2004). Crime and Economic Incentives. Journal of Human Resources, 39(4), 958-79.
Marselli, R., & Vannini, M. (1997). Estimating a Crime Equation in the Presence of Organized Crime: Evidence from Italy. International Review of Law and Economics, 17(1), 89-113.
Marvell, T. B., & Moody Jr., C. E. (1991). Age Structure and Crime Rates: The Conflicting Evidence. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 7(3), 237-73.
Naritomi, J., Soares, R. R., & Assuncao, J. J. (2012). Institutional Development and Colonial Heritage Within Brazil. The Journal of Economic History, 72(02), 393-422.
Núñez, C. A., et al. (2009). Movilidad social, desigualdad de oportunidades y actividades delictivas: un enfoque teórico (Informe Técnico). Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
Nunley, J. M., Seals Jr., R. A., & Zietz, J. (2011a). Demographic Change, Macroeconomic Conditions and the Murder Rate: The Case of the United States, 1934-2006. The Journal of Socio-Economics.
Nunley, J. M., Seals, Jr., R. A., & Zietz, J. (2011b). The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on Property Crime. Auburn University Department of Economics Working Paper Series (AUWP 2011-06).
Pampel, F. C., & Williamson, J. B. (2001). Age Patterns of Suicide and Homicide Mortality Rates in High-income Nations. Social Forces, 80(1), 251-82.
Persyn, D., & Westerlund, J. (2008). Error-correction-based Cointegration Tests for Panel Data. Stata Journal, 8(2), 232.
Phillips, A. (2006). Really Equal: Opportunities and Autonomy.
Journal of Political Philosophy, 14(1), 18-32.
Quintero, D. M., Lahuerta, Y., & Moreno, J. M. (2008). Un índice de criminalidad para Colombia. Revista Criminalidad (50), 37-58.
Ralston, D. A. (2008). The Crossvergence Perspective: Reflections and Projections. Journal of International Business Studies, 39(1), 27-40.
Robinson, W. S. (2009). Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals. International Journal of Epidemiology, 38(2), 337-41.
Rubio, M. (1999). Crimen e impunidad. Bogotá: Tercer Mundo.
Tang, G.-B., Cui, J.-G., & Wang, D.-H. (2009). Role of Hypoleptinemia During Cold Adaptation in Brandt’s Voles (Lasiopodomys Brandtii). American Journal of Physiology-Regulatory, Integrative and Comparative Physiology, 297(5), R1293-R1301.
Wolpin, K. I. (1980). A Time Series-cross Section Analysis of International Variation in Crime and Punishment. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 417-23.