Evidencia empírica de la curva S en las balanzas comerciales bilaterales de Colombia
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Keywords
Curva S, balanza comercial, tasa de cambio real, Colombia.
Resumen
La condición Marshall-Lerner la curva J y la curva S han surgido como elementos teóricos y empíricos desarrollados para el estudio de la interacción entre las tasas de cambio y los patrones internacionales de comercio bilateral. Estas poseen una relevancia significativa en el desarrollo de política pública nacional y han sido objeto de estudio por la comunidad académica y profesional. La más reciente de estas teorías, la curva S, se conoce como la conducta que se teoriza hallar en la función de correlación cruzada entre la tasa de cambio real y la balanza comercial a corto plazo. Basado en dicho contexto teórico, este artículo busca evidencia empírica sobre la existencia de la curva S en el intercambio comercial bilateral de bienes commodities y non-commodities entre Colombia y Estados Unidos y Venezuela, sus principales socios comerciales, en los trimestres entre 1994:1 y 2009:4.
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