La relación euro-dólar: seis años después que el euro presentase su mínimo nivel
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Abstract
Este artículo muestra la relación del tipo de cambio euro-dólar desde que el euro empezó a circular. Específicamente, después de considerar algunos elementos teóricos que determinan el tipo de cambio, explica los principales hechos que llevaron a que el euro a partir de octubre de 2000 revertiera su tendencia decreciente frente al dólar y qué aspectos están influyendo en la actualidad sobre su desempeño, llegando a la conclusión que no es posible establecer un modelo que pondere las variables de forma racional y significativa, haciendo que el comportamiento del tipo de cambio no pueda ser explicado en su totalidad por la teoría económica existente.
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References
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Boughton, J. (1997) Review of: Fundamental determinants of exchange rates. En: Journal of Economic Literature, v. 35, iss. 2, pp. 792-793.
Comin, D. y T. Philippon, (2006) The Rise in Firm-Level Volatility: Causes and Consequences, En: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, ed.
Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press. Vía Internet en: http://www.nber.org/books/macro20/index.html.
De Grauwe, P. (2000) The euro-dollar exchange rate in search of fundamentals. University of Leuven and CEPR. Junio.
De Lecea, A. (2006) Asia and Europe in the global financial system implications for exchange rates, the use of the euro, effects on global imbalances, eu-asia financial market dialogue En: The euro: lessons for European and Asia financial markets. En: http://europa.eu.int/comm/economy_finance/events/2006/events_hongkong_240206_en.htm.
Frankel, J. (2005) On the renminbi: the choice between adjustment under a fixed exchange rate and adjustment under a flexible rate. Working Paper 11274. Cambrige. http://www.nber.org/papers/w11274
Fan, G. (2006) Currency asymmetry, global imbalance, and reform of International Monetary System. National Economic Research Institute, Beijing, China. En: Fondo Monetario Internacional (2006) World Economic Outlook. Globalization and inflation, abril, Washington, D.C.
Financial Times Reporters (2006) Greenspan calls for stronger Asian currencies. Abril 12. En: http://news.ft.com/cms/s/778d9570-c9e5-11da-852f-0000779e2340.html
García, A. y Del Río, P. (2002) Convergencia real y nominal en la adhesión a la Unión Europea. En: Revista Economía Industrial No. 345, Madrid, España.
González, J. (2004) El euro seis años después: logros y retos para el futuro. Miembro ejecutivo del BCE, En http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2004/html/sp041209_1.es.html
Hämäläinen, S. (2000) The euro and the dollar-new imperatives for policy coordination, at conference “Transatlantic Financial Policy Co-ordination in an Age of Global Capital Markets”, at the European Institute, New York, 18 September, En: http://www.ecb.int/
Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas de China (2006). En: http://www.stats.gov.cn
Issing, O. (2005) The ECB and the euro -the first 6 years: A view from the ECB. En: Journal of Policy Modeling, v. 27, iss. 4, pp. 405-20.
Krugman, P. y M. Obstfeld (2005) International Economics. Theory and policy. New York.
Mallet, V. (2006) IMF suggests China raise interest rates further. Mayo 2. En: http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f92f7cfc-d9a7-11da-b7de-0000779e2340.html
McKinnon, R. (2005) Trapped by the international dollar standard. En: Journal of Policy Modeling, v. 27, iss. 4, pp. 477-485.
Mundell, R (2005) The Case for a World Currency, En: Journal of Policy Modeling, v. 27, iss. 4, pp. 465-75.
Mundell, R. (1961) A theory of optimum currency areas, En: The American Economic Review, v. 51, No. 4, pp. 657-665.
Opler, T., L. Pinkowitz, R. Stulz, y R. Williamson (1999) The Determinants and Implications of Corporate Cash Holdings, En: Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 52 (April), pp. 3–46.
Reserva Federal (2006) En: http://www.federalreserve.gov
Trichet, J. (2006) Two successes of the euro: the single monetary policy and European financial integration. Conference on experience with and preparations for the euro. organised by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank and the Austrian Federal Economic Chamber together with the Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance and the European Commission Linz En: http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2004/html/sp041209_1.es.html
Truman, E. (2006) A Strategy for IMF Reform. En: Policy Analyses in International Economics 77. Institute for International Economics.
UNCTAD (2006) En: http://stats.unctad.org/FDI/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=5
Volcker, P. (2002) Globalization and the World of Finance. Eastern Economic Journal, v. 28, iss. 1, pp. 13-20.
Wolff, C. (1997) Review of: Exchange rate economics. En: Journal of Economic Literature, v. 35, iss. 2, pp. 784-786.