Evaluación del riesgo de deslizamientos superficiales para proyectos de infraestructura: caso de análisis en vereda El Cabuyal
Main Article Content
Keywords
Landslide, Risk, Hazard, Vulnerability
Resumen
Este artículo presenta un análisis y evaluación cuantitativa de la amenaza, la vulnerabilidad y el riesgo asociados a deslizamientos superficiales en una subcuenca del Valle de Aburrá (Colombia). Se integra el modelo TRIGRS mediante una simulación de Montecarlo para la estimación de la probabilidad de falla en la subcuenca empleando una altura del nivel freático como factor desencadenante, que junto con su probabilidad de ocurrencia anual permiten la evaluación de la amenaza. Se emplea un modelo que cuantifica la vulnerabilidad física de estructuras basándose en la intensidad del deslizamiento y la resistencia del elemento expuesto. El riesgo anual se estima para una vivienda del sitio de estudio como el producto de la amenaza y el valor de la pérdida dado el evento catastrófico, considerando la vulnerabilidad. La metodología empleada se enfoca en el deslizamiento ocurrido el 26 de octubre de 2016 en un talud dentro del sitio de estudio que afectó la vivienda que es objeto de análisis.
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Referencias
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[25] R. J. Marín and J. P. Osorio, “Modelación de la contribución arbórea en aná-lisis de susceptibilidad a deslizamientos superficiales,”Revista EIA, vol. 14,no. 28, pp. 13–28, 2017. 162
[26] Z. Liao, Y. Hong, D. Kirschbaum, R. F. Adler, J. J. Gourley, and R. Wooten,“Evaluation of TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regionalslope-stability analysis)’s predictive skill for hurricane-triggered landslides: acase study in Macon County, North Carolina,”Natural hazards, vol. 58, no. 1,pp. 325–339, 2011. 162
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[29] E. Aristizábal, E. García, and C. Martínez, “Susceptibility assessment ofshallow landslides triggered by rainfall in tropical basins and mountainousterrains,”Natural Hazards, vol. 78, no. 1, pp. 621–634, 2015. 163
[30] E. Aristizábal, J. I. Vélez, H. E. Martínez, and M. Jaboyedoff,“SHIA_Landslide: a distributed conceptual and physically based model toforecast the temporal and spatial occurrence of shallow landslides triggeredby rainfall in tropical and mountainous basins,”Landslides, vol. 13, no. 3,pp. 497–517, 2016. 163
[31] S. Raia, M. Alvioli, M. Rossi, F. Guzzetti, R. Baum, and J. Godt, “Impro-ving predictive power of physically based rainfall induced shallow landslidesmodels: a probabilistic approach with TRIGRS-P (v. 2.0),” 2013. 165
[32] S. E. Cho, “Effects of spatial variability of soil properties on slope stability,”Engineering Geology, vol. 92, no. 3-4, pp. 97–109, 2007. 165
[33] G. Steluti Marques and J. Azoia Lukiantchuki, “Evaluation of the stabilityof a highway slope through numerical modeling,”Dyna, vol. 84, no. 200, pp.121–128, 2017. 165
[34] G. B. Baecher and J. T. Christian,Reliability and statistics in geotechnicalengineering. John Wiley & Sons, 2005. 165
[35] M. Uzielli, F. Nadim, S. Lacasse, and A. M. Kaynia, “A conceptual fra-mework for quantitative estimation of physical vulnerability to landslides,”Engineering Geology, vol. 102, no. 3-4, pp. 251–256, 2008. 167
[36] E. Arnone, Y. Dialynas, L. Noto, and R. Bras, “Accounting for soil parame-ter uncertainty in a physically based and distributed approach for rainfall-triggered landslides,”Hydrological Processes, vol. 30, no. 6, pp. 927–944, 2016.172
[37] C. Bovolo and J. Bathurst, “Modelling catchment-scale shallow landslide oc-currence and sediment yield as a function of rainfall return period,”Hydro-logical Processes, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 579–596, 2012. 172
[38] R. J. Marín, J. P. Osorioet al., “Evaluación de la estabilidad de taludes cuan-tificando el efecto de la vegetación,” inISRM 2nd International SpecializedConference on Soft Rocks. International Society for Rock Mechanics, 2016.172
[39] J. C. Bathurst, C. I. Bovolo, and F. Cisneros, “Modelling the effect of forestcover on shallow landslides at the river basin scale,”Ecological Engineering,vol. 36, no. 3, pp. 317–327, 2010. 173
[2] E. Aristizábal and J. Gómez, “Inventario de emergencias y desastres en el Va-lle de Aburrá. Originados por fenómenos naturales y antrópicos en el período1880-2007,”Gestión y ambiente, vol. 10, no. 2, 2007. 155
[3] R. C. Sidle and T. A. Bogaard, “Dynamic earth system and ecological controlsof rainfall-initiated landslides,”Earth-science reviews, vol. 159, pp. 275–291,2016. 155
[4] E. V. Aristizábal, J. I. Vélez, and H. E. Martínez, “Influencia de la lluviaantecedente y la conductividad hidráulica en la ocurrencia de deslizamientosdetonados por lluvias utilizando el modelo SHIA_Landslide,”Revista EIA,vol. 13, no. 26, pp. 31–46, 2016. 155
[5] R. S. Crosbie, J. L. McCallum, G. R. Walker, and F. H. Chiew, “Modellingclimate-change impacts on groundwater recharge in the Murray-Darling Ba-sin, Australia,”Hydrogeology Journal, vol. 18, no. 7, pp. 1639–1656, 2010.155
[6] V. Otálvaro, M. Victoria, L. M. Vásquez Arizaet al., “Métodos para deter-minar la recarga de acuíferos.” 2004. 155
[7] D. Griffiths and G. A. Fenton, “Probabilistic slope stability analysis by finiteelements,”Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, vol.130, no. 5, pp. 507–518, 2004. 155
[8] C. C. Silva, “Análise de estabilidade de um talude da cava de alegria utili-zando abordagem probabilística.” 2015. 155
[9] H. J. Park, J. H. Lee, and I. Woo, “Assessment of rainfall-induced shallowlandslide susceptibility using a gis-based probabilistic approach,”EngineeringGeology, vol. 161, pp. 1–15, 2013. 155
[10] E. Arnone, Y. Dialynas, L. Noto, and R. Bras, “Parameter uncertainty inshallow rainfall-triggered landslide modeling at basin scale: a probabilisticapproach,”Procedia Earth and Planetary Science, vol. 9, pp. 101–111, 2014.155
[11] D.-Q. Li, F.-P. Zhang, Z.-J. Cao, W. Zhou, K.-K. Phoon, and C.-B. Zhou,“Efficient reliability updating of slope stability by reweighting failure samplesgenerated by Monte Carlo simulation,”Computers and Geotechnics, vol. 69,pp. 588–600, 2015. 155
[12] Y. Wang, Z. Cao, and S.-K. Au, “Efficient Monte Carlo simulation of pa-rameter sensitivity in probabilistic slope stability analysis,”Computers andGeotechnics, vol. 37, no. 7-8, pp. 1015–1022, 2010. 155
[13] Y.-F. Lee and Y.-Y. Chi, “Rainfall-induced landslide risk at Lushan, Taiwan,”Engineering Geology, vol. 123, no. 1-2, pp. 113–121, 2011. 155
[14] L. Baum, W. Z. Savage, and J. W. Godt, “TRIGRS-A Fortran program fortransient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis,version 2.0, US Geological Survey Open-File Report 2008–1159, available at:http://pubs. usgs. gov/of/2008/1159,” 2008. 155, 160, 161, 172
[15] S. Raia, M. Alvioli, M. Rossi, R. Baum, J. Godt, and F. Guzzetti, “Impro-ving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslidemodels: a probabilistic approach,”Geoscientific Model Development, 2014.155, 160, 162, 165, 172, 173
[16] M. T. d. M. G. Silva, “Avaliação quantitativa da vulnerabilidade física asso-ciada a processos de deslizamentos de encostas,” 2016. 156, 157, 167, 171,172
[17] H. Einstein and R. Sousa, “Warning systems for natural threats,”Georisk,vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 3–20, 2007. 156
[18] P. A. Isaza-Restrepo, H. E. M. Carvajal, and C. A. H. Montoya, “Methodo-logy for quantitative landslide risk analysis in residential projects,”HabitatInternational, vol. 53, pp. 403–412, 2016. 156
[19] P. Jaiswal, C. J. van Westen, and V. Jetten, “Quantitative landslide hazardassessment along a transportation corridor in southern india,”Engineeringgeology, vol. 116, no. 3-4, pp. 236–250, 2010. 156
[20] J. Escobar, T. Betancur, E. García, C. Martínez, and P. Palacio, “Análisisjerárquico ponderado aplicado a la identificación de recarga y flujos regionalesen acuíferos,”Revista Politécnica, vol. 13, no. 24, pp. 37–48, 2017. 156, 160
[21] R. Fell, K. Ho, S. Lacasse, and E. Leroi, “A framework for landslide riskassessment and management,”Landslide Risk Management, pp. 3–26, 2005.157
[22] Z. Li, F. Nadim, H. Huang, M. Uzielli, and S. Lacasse, “Quantitative vulne-rability estimation for scenario-based landslide hazards,”Landslides, vol. 7,no. 2, pp. 125–134, 2010. 157, 158, 167
[23] D. Taylor,Fundamentals of soil mechanics. Chapman And Hall, Limited.;New York, 1948. 160
[24] R. L. Baum, J. W. Godt, and W. Z. Savage, “Estimating the timing andlocation of shallow rainfall-induced landslides using a model for transient,unsaturated infiltration,”Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface,vol. 115, no. F3, 2010. 161
[25] R. J. Marín and J. P. Osorio, “Modelación de la contribución arbórea en aná-lisis de susceptibilidad a deslizamientos superficiales,”Revista EIA, vol. 14,no. 28, pp. 13–28, 2017. 162
[26] Z. Liao, Y. Hong, D. Kirschbaum, R. F. Adler, J. J. Gourley, and R. Wooten,“Evaluation of TRIGRS (transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regionalslope-stability analysis)’s predictive skill for hurricane-triggered landslides: acase study in Macon County, North Carolina,”Natural hazards, vol. 58, no. 1,pp. 325–339, 2011. 162
[27] D. Salciarini, J. W. Godt, W. Z. Savage, P. Conversini, R. L. Baum, and J. A.Michael, “Modeling regional initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslidesin the eastern Umbria Region of central Italy,”Landslides, vol. 3, no. 3, p.181, 2006. 162
[28] T. Fawcett, “An introduction to ROC analysis,”Pattern recognition letters,vol. 27, no. 8, pp. 861–874, 2006. 163
[29] E. Aristizábal, E. García, and C. Martínez, “Susceptibility assessment ofshallow landslides triggered by rainfall in tropical basins and mountainousterrains,”Natural Hazards, vol. 78, no. 1, pp. 621–634, 2015. 163
[30] E. Aristizábal, J. I. Vélez, H. E. Martínez, and M. Jaboyedoff,“SHIA_Landslide: a distributed conceptual and physically based model toforecast the temporal and spatial occurrence of shallow landslides triggeredby rainfall in tropical and mountainous basins,”Landslides, vol. 13, no. 3,pp. 497–517, 2016. 163
[31] S. Raia, M. Alvioli, M. Rossi, F. Guzzetti, R. Baum, and J. Godt, “Impro-ving predictive power of physically based rainfall induced shallow landslidesmodels: a probabilistic approach with TRIGRS-P (v. 2.0),” 2013. 165
[32] S. E. Cho, “Effects of spatial variability of soil properties on slope stability,”Engineering Geology, vol. 92, no. 3-4, pp. 97–109, 2007. 165
[33] G. Steluti Marques and J. Azoia Lukiantchuki, “Evaluation of the stabilityof a highway slope through numerical modeling,”Dyna, vol. 84, no. 200, pp.121–128, 2017. 165
[34] G. B. Baecher and J. T. Christian,Reliability and statistics in geotechnicalengineering. John Wiley & Sons, 2005. 165
[35] M. Uzielli, F. Nadim, S. Lacasse, and A. M. Kaynia, “A conceptual fra-mework for quantitative estimation of physical vulnerability to landslides,”Engineering Geology, vol. 102, no. 3-4, pp. 251–256, 2008. 167
[36] E. Arnone, Y. Dialynas, L. Noto, and R. Bras, “Accounting for soil parame-ter uncertainty in a physically based and distributed approach for rainfall-triggered landslides,”Hydrological Processes, vol. 30, no. 6, pp. 927–944, 2016.172
[37] C. Bovolo and J. Bathurst, “Modelling catchment-scale shallow landslide oc-currence and sediment yield as a function of rainfall return period,”Hydro-logical Processes, vol. 26, no. 4, pp. 579–596, 2012. 172
[38] R. J. Marín, J. P. Osorioet al., “Evaluación de la estabilidad de taludes cuan-tificando el efecto de la vegetación,” inISRM 2nd International SpecializedConference on Soft Rocks. International Society for Rock Mechanics, 2016.172
[39] J. C. Bathurst, C. I. Bovolo, and F. Cisneros, “Modelling the effect of forestcover on shallow landslides at the river basin scale,”Ecological Engineering,vol. 36, no. 3, pp. 317–327, 2010. 173
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Publicado
jun 15, 2018
Article Details
Cómo citar
Marín, R. J., Guzmán-Martínez, J. C., Martínez Carvajal, H. E., García-Aristizábal, E. F., Cadavid-Arango, J. D., & Agudelo-Vallejo, P. (2018). Evaluación del riesgo de deslizamientos superficiales para proyectos de infraestructura: caso de análisis en vereda El Cabuyal. Ingeniería Y Ciencia, 14(27), 153–177. https://doi.org/10.17230/ingciencia.14.27.7
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Universidad de Antioquia
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