Sensitivity analysis of a hydrodynamic model to determine the relevance of physical processes and external forcings on the currents of the Punchiná reservoir (Antioquia)

Abstract

This paper presents a sensitivity analysis on a hydrodynamic model in relation to a number of physical processes and external forcings which were initially assumed to have some influence on the characteristics of the flows in the Punchiná Reservoir. This analysis was based on a methodology that defines the spatial variation of the sensitivity for the involved processes, quantitatively indicating where and to what degree they are relevant inside the interest area. The effect on the hydrodynamics of the reservoir due to the tributaries, outlets, wind, and density currents was determined, indicating the areas where they are predominant and the degree of impact on each. This analysis was taken into consideration under two scenarios: the reservoir at its maximum and at its mean water level, where the effect on temperature stratification can be seen due to the operation of the reservoir. Additionally, the impact that the main tributaries have on the behavior of the hydrodynamics in the reservoir was made clear, particularly in shallow areas as well as the weakening of the impact in deep areas.