Metodología para la zonificación de la susceptibilidad por movimientos en masa en proyectos lineales Estudio de caso en el acueducto del municipio de Fredonia, Antioquia
Main Article Content
Keywords
Proyectos lineales, SHALSTAB, análisis condicional, heurístico, índice de TOBIA, susceptibilidad, amenaza
Resumen
Los movimientos en masa se caracterizan por su capacidad de generar pérdidas. En Colombia, un considerable porcentaje de pérdidas está asociado a proyectos lineales; tan solo entre los años 2010-2011, 575 municipios fueron afectados por daños en la infraestructura de agua potable y saneamiento. Considerando la grave problemática de los proyectos lineales, el presente trabajo propone la combinación de métodos heurísticos, estadísticos y con base física para evaluar la susceptibilidad y amenaza por movimientos en masa, bajo diferentes escalas de análisis. Además de la construcción del mapa de unidades de criticidad, utilizando como unidad de análisis la Unidad Morfodinámica Independiente. El modelo obtenido es validado utilizando las curvas de éxito y el área bajo la curva (AUC, por su sigla en inglés). La metodología propuesta se implementó en el trayecto de la tubería del acueducto municipal del municipio de Fredonia en el departamento de Antioquia. Se identificó un 6% de zonas tanto inestables como de muy alta y alta susceptibilidad; y un 13% de zonas correspondientes tanto a cataclinales de menor buzamiento a la ladera y de igual buzamiento a la pendiente, como zonas de muy alta y alta susceptibilidad. El AUC para el análisis condicional y el mapa de criticidad arrojó un valor de 0.81 y 0.73 señalando un muy buen ajuste y desempeño de los modelos.
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nov 8, 2017
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Mendoza Ramirez, J., & Aristizábal Giraldo, E. V. (2017). Metodología para la zonificación de la susceptibilidad por movimientos en masa en proyectos lineales: Estudio de caso en el acueducto del municipio de Fredonia, Antioquia. Ingeniería Y Ciencia, 13(26), 173–206. https://doi.org/10.17230/ingciencia.13.26.7
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Operadores de Servicios S.A. E.S.P., Universidad EAFIT, Universidad Nacional de Colombia
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