El impacto del gasto público en educación en el crecimiento económico de Irán

Main Article Content

Fozieh Jeyhoon Tabar
Zahra Najafi
Yaser Sistani Badooei

Keywords

Wagner, Keynes, total de gastos, gastos educativos, gasto público, ARDL, ECM.

Resumen

Utilizando datos anuales de la economía de Irán desde 1981 hasta 2012, este estudio examina la Ley de Wagner y la hipótesis keynesiana en cuanto a la relación entre el gasto público real y el PIB real.  En este aspecto, este artículo investigó la relación entre el gasto público total, el PIB y la relación  entre  el gasto público en educación y el PIB usando modelos bivariables y multivariables. El modelo multivariable es utilizado para reducir los errores específicos  que no han sido considerados  en muchos  estudios.  La co-integración fue examinada utilizando el modelo autorregresivo con retardos distribuidos (ARDL, por sus siglas en inglés) tanto para las relaciones a largo como a corto  plazo. Al realizar las estimaciones  de la perspectiva de Wagner, las variables: PIB real, capital social y fuerza laboral, tuvieron, respectivamen- te, un efecto positivo, negativo y positivo en el total del gasto del gobierno y la relación de largo plazo es verdadera en este sentido. Adicionalmente, en la estimación del modelo keynesiano, los gastos educati- vos, a diferencia de los gastos públicos reales, tuvieron una relación de largo plazo. Además, la variable capital, en ambos modelos tuvo un efecto similar en el PIB real y el coeficiente de fuerza laboral en presencia de los gastos totales y los gastos en educación fueron negativos y positivos, respectivamente.

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